Key points to remember:
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Bitcoin’s double bottom pattern could spur bullish momentum towards $110,000.
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The CME gap near $104,000 could trigger a near-term retracement.
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Stablecoin accumulation and short-term holder stress suggest short-term volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) staged a classic double bottom pattern over the weekend, which led BTC to secure a bullish weekly close above its 50-week moving average. The formation coincided with the daily order block between $98,100 and $102,000, where BTC repeatedly tested the $100,000 zone before rebounding.
After a bullish breakout of the structure on the four-hour chart, Bitcoin now faces resistance near $111,300, a level that could be tested if near-term momentum holds. However, on-chain data suggests that this breakthrough might not happen so easily.
Glassnode explained that Bitcoin has rebounded from the 75th percentile base cost, near $100,000. The next significant hurdle lies near the 85th percentile cost base, or around $108,500, a level that has historically acted as resistance during recovery moves. The basic percentile cost metric measures where the majority of investors have acquired their BTC, effectively mapping the distribution of costs in the market.
However, Cointelegraph noted a potential liquidity seizure above $115,000, which corresponds to a daily resistance level, with long-term liquidity near $100,000 exhausted.
Additionally, a CME gap of $103,100 to $104,000 remains a key near-term risk. CME gaps occur when Bitcoin’s weekend price movement creates a difference between Friday’s closing price and Monday’s opening price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and these gaps are often “filled” as traders revisit these levels, suggesting that BTC could briefly reverse course before resuming its uptrend.
With liquidity and stake dwindling, BTC could revisit $101,000 to $102,500, retesting the weekend’s one-hour and four-hour order blocks before making a decisive move higher.
Related: “The Most Hated Bullfight Ever? 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week
Stablecoin strength could shape BTC’s near-term outlook
CryptoQuant data indicates that the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has plunged to 13.1 from over 18 earlier this year, one of the lowest levels in 2025. The decline indicates an increase in stablecoin reserves relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization, a sign of off-chain liquidity accumulating awaiting a market signal.
Over the past month, SSR has fallen from 15 to 13, while BTC has hovered around $105,000, suggesting that buyers are waiting for confirmation before deploying capital.
Conversely, crypto analyst Darkfost observed a 40% increase in short-term holder (STH) flows to Binance since September, from 5,000 BTC to 8,700 BTC. With a realized price for STH around $112,000, many remain underwater and increasingly react to short-term volatility. Selling pressure from this cohort often precedes mid-cycle upheavals before broader bullish continuations, adding a layer of short-term instability.
Related: Bitcoin and ETH ETFs See $1.7 Billion Outflow, But Whale Buying Softens Price Impact
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
